You have spoken, readers, and today, as promised, I will answer. A little while ago I offered up four possible options for analysis, and you chose your favorites. I sent the results to the accounting offices of McCormick, Smith, and My Wife, and what came back was pretty clear. Seems there's one Lost topic clearly on your mind these days: the subterfuge in the Swan.

For the sake of keeping everyone up to date, here's the winning topic:

Swan Subterfuge. In "What Kate Did," we learned that the orientation film for the Swan was edited, omitting information about the Swan computer. We know, although our Lostaways don't, who was behind this fanciful editing. But why was this footage edited? Why would using the computer for communication cause an incident? And how does the Blast Door Map fit into all this?

So, in that topic, I've laid out three specific instances in which elements inside the Swan were established to fool its inhabitants. I'm going to look at each of them to try and decipher who concocted such misdirection, and to what purpose. I'll be looking at one topic per day, and will pick up the We Have to Go Back trail next week. Sound good? Good.

The Orientation Film

Upon initially watching the film in the episode "Orientation," the various blips, squawks, and jumpcuts seemed a mere product of age. After all, it's not as if the Swan is climate-controlled for the long-term storage of film. But it wasn't until "What Kate Did" that we got a sense that the film had been literally cut and spliced back together by human hands on the Island.

We learn by season's end that the man who cut the film and stored the spliced footage inside the Arrow was a man named Radzinsky, former partner of Kelvin Inman. Our information on Radzinsky is unreliable, in that the only things we know about him are told to Desmond Hume via Inman while the pair shared Swan duty together. So we might very well learn in Season 5 or 6 that Inman's story is completely baloney in and of itself. But for now, let's assume Inman told enough truth about Radzinsky to keep Desmond unaware of his long-term plan to fix Hume's boat and leave the Island.

The specific part cut out refers to not using the Swan computer for anything else other than entering the code. Candle specifically warns against using the computer for communication to the outside world. "Outside world" is a bit of a fuzzy statement here, as it could mean the world outside the Island as well as life outside the Swan. The geodesic dome structure suggests the Earth itself, but also a bubble, meant to contain all that which is within.

According to The Lost Experience, an online game enacted between Seasons 2 and 3, the radio tower emitting Rousseau's signal used to broadcast The Numbers, on a frequency known only to the Hanso Foundation. This signal is what Sam Toomey heard in Australia, and what Danielle's crew heard just offshore 16 years ago. The point of broadcasting these numbers was to alert those off-Island if the core values of something called "The Valenzetti Equation" was altered by the efforts of the Dharma Initiative. This equation predicts the end of the world, a date generated by a set of factors (environmental, psychological, meteorological, etc) inherent to the equation. The work of the Dharma Initiative? To change the equation, altering any of these core values, and by extension, saving the world.

Given the level of secrecy surrounding The Dharma Initiative, it's possible that people working in individual stations did not know the work being done in the other hatches. Heck, it's even possible that they didn't know the true nature of their own work. But it's possible that part of the initial job was to send in, on a daily basis, the core numerical value of the Valenzetti Equation that their particular hatch was designed to alter. These values were fed via computer and on-Island intranet, collated at the radio tower, and broadcast according. This went on all fine and good for a while.

But there was something the Initiative didn't count on: the human factor. By looking at things such as electromagnetism and ESP, they forgot to account for the fact that human beings will often act in an unpredictable manner. As such, at some point between 1978 and 1980, a series of messages between Dharma station computers directly or indirectly led to the incident. Here's how I got those dates: at Comicon 2008, Lost producers showed a video in which Pierre Chang (the real name of Marvin Candle) states he's sending a message thirty years into the future. The date on the Swan Orientation video is dated 1980. In between these two time periods, Pierre loses his hand, and the Incident occurs.

The 1980 version of the orientation film is in fact the Version 2.0 of this particular hatch, specifically designed for a post-Incident world. That seems pretty clear. Not only does it refer to the Incident, but also refers to the new protocol, with the added warning to not use the computer for anything but the inputting of numbers. These three elements cannot be unrelated. Perhaps the Hostiles/Others used the computers to undermine work being done elsewhere. Maybe a Walt-like psychic infiltrated the network. There are plenty of plausible, fascinating ways in which this could have occurred. But going down that road leads to fanfic, not actual theory, so let's put that aside for now and get to something we KNOW happened: this 1980 version got clipped by Radzinsky. So, why did he do it?

I have to admit, I am struggling to truly come up with a set of solutions that satisfy me completely. Luckily, looking at the subterfuge surrounding the computer, coupled with analyzing the Blast Door Map, might provide some insight. So treat this entry today as the start of a Socratic dialogue between not only myself, but all of you. Which means it's your turn to put your thinking caps on, people, and put yourself in Radzinsky's shoes. You know, before he went and blew his brains out. Why does he cut the film? Is he trying to help the Dharma Initiative? Help the Others? Help the Island? Or is he trying to take down one, if not all, of these elements?

Leave your thoughts below! Tomorrow, we'll look at the computer for more clues.

Ryan also posts every 108 minutes over at Boob Tube Dude, then peruses Zap2It's Guide to Lost Facebook group.

Comments

I feel like I've seen most everything to be seen on LOST, but I have to ask those more in the know than I:

When do we discover that Pierre Chang lost his hand? I don't remember this and haven't had the time to really get into reseaching it. Can anyone help me out? Thanks.

Dwight | Sep 15, 2008 5:17:18 PM | #

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Dwight-

During the 'Swan' Orientation was filmed, Marvin Candle is wearing a prosthetic hand. However, all the other films, which were filmed before the incident, his hand is intact.

Shaggysteve | Sep 15, 2008 5:47:21 PM | #

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Dwight: I outlined this in earlier entries:

http://blog.zap2it.com/lost/2008/07/lost-analyzing.html

and here:

http://blog.zap2it.com/lost/2008/08/lost-orientatio.html

Key quote:

"We know this because in the Comic Con 2008 video, we see Marvin Candle (or, as we know him to be now, Pierre Chang) in New Otherton with two working hands. Thus, the Swan film seen in this episode was a Version 2.0 or sorts, which places the time of the Incident between 1978 (when the pinhole was opened to Comic Con) and 1980 (the copyright on the film)."

Ryan | Sep 15, 2008 5:51:04 PM | #

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I don't know why the film was spliced either, but I have another question also. Why did the "Others" leave Desmond and Inman in the hatch alone? Now, it is possible Inman was an Other, working for Ben, keeping Desmond busy. Ben would have known Des's connection to Widmore, but why just leave him there (and did the Others ever leave New Otherton before the crash)? Just another reason why we NEED a scene between Des and Ben.

Anyway, Lost is on SciFi right now - I guess they Had To Go Back a little later than us.

A-Rob | Sep 15, 2008 5:52:48 PM | #

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Man I really screwed that last post up gramatically. I meant to say During the 'Swan' orientation film.

Anyways, I feel Radzinsky was most likely working for the Others and/or Jacob. They seemed to have more to gain with the film edit. I'm wondering why he chose to hide the film edits in the 'Arrow'. Also, how is it Radzinsky knew about all the hatches, and the supposed tunnel between them to be able to draw the 'Blast Door Map'?

Shaggysteve | Sep 15, 2008 6:06:06 PM | #

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Ryan & Shaggysteve,

Thanks for the info. I swear I've seen that video at least 10 times without ever picking up on that, and all of Ryan's posts since the 2008 Comicon video made me more curious about it.

As far as the actual question Ryan posed, I have no better answer than those who've already posted.

My only theory, like Shaggysteve, would be that Radzinsky was a native or "hostile", as they seem to be the only group that would gain from creating an incident or having an unofficial map of the island's hatches. In fact, if we view Radzinsky as a true native of the island, we could assume two things further: 1) That he did believe that pushing the button was saving the world (and the magnet-wall and purple sky suggests a real danger there, one that the natives perhaps already knew about), and 2) That he was hoping for a further incident as the new island inhabitants got a foothold (essentially that, if two hatches were occupied at a later date - I'd assume by non-natives - they would inevitably attempt to communicate and seal their own fate by creating another incident).

I'm not sure that even makes sense to me, but there you go.

Dwight | Sep 15, 2008 6:56:48 PM | #

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This has always been a hard thing to understand. Presumably, after the Incident happened and the new protocol was set up, this new film was recorded to emphasize just how important it was to enter the numbers correctly and in a timely manner. Based on the tension surrounding the scenes when the alarm sounds, it seems one incorrect keystroke could spell disaster.

But when we see Michael using the computer, it seems the only time he can actually make the computer work before the 4 minute alarm signal is when Walt initiates the conversation. Now, once that conversation is underway, there certainly is the possibility that the person on button duty could potentially compromise the protocol. Heck, Michael locks everyone in the armoury and runs off; I'd say that's a compromised protocol situation.

That aside, I wonder if maybe Radzinsky removed that section of the orientation film not because he was trying to coax another Incident into happening, but because he wanted something he could take with him - for whatever reason. Perhaps the blanket, the glass eye, the bible, the radio and the film were place in the Arrow for a reason. We still don't really know what the Arrow was for, though I imagine when Radzinsky left the film splice there it was long since abandoned. Perhaps he took it with him on a search for answers.

Oh, by the way, Shaggysteve, Candle also has a fake arm in the Flame video.

JeffC | Sep 15, 2008 9:02:58 PM | #

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I can't really posit a theory right now, as there are too many unknown variables involved with the Incident and Radzinsky, but we have to consider two things:

1) Whatever happened in the past may be a result of the involvement of Daniel Faraday, who is highly likely to be the guy on the other end of that ComiCon tape

2) The Pearl video all but called everything happening in the Swan a pack of lies. It said the Swan was a sociological/psychological experiment, so for all we know, everything the Swan Orientation film said could be bullshit.

It's possible they didn't want them to contact anyone outside of the Swan as part of the experiment, and might even have used the Incident as a smokescreen to get them to continue to not communicate and to keep pushing the button. (Of course, the button really DID keep the Swan from imploding, so /shrug).

Other Sean | Sep 15, 2008 9:06:07 PM | #

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There are many ways the writers could go with the whole Dharma thing...that it is all baloney, that they were trying to do some actual research and knew of the Islands special gifts or any of a number of other ways. We also don't know who is behind all the money needed to fund the Dharma group and it makes me think it has to be someone with a great deal of cash like Penny's dad.

I still don't believe entirely that the spliced piece that was found is entirely acurate or legitimate because as I mentioned before Pierre Chang's hair is much different than in the rest of the film.....check it out again. His clothes are the same but his appearance is different. If the scene was filmed continuously why would this section in the middle look different? Maybe this spliced piece belongs to another film....

Jacoby | Sep 16, 2008 6:03:36 AM | #

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Jacoby: we do know who is behind all the money needed to fund the DHARMA group. It's Alvar Hanso, founder of the Hanso Foundation. DHARMA wasn't Widmore's baby; it was Alvar's. Alvar wanted the Island because he thought he could use its unique properties to save the world. Charles wants the Island because he can exploit it.

Anyways, I'm leaning toward the theory that Radzinsky used the Arrow as a sort of base, where he would store the various clues and bits of evidence he found on his trips around the Island. Radzinsky would take trips out of the Swan to the other stations, stop at the Arrow to stash his findings, and return before 108 minutes were up. I'm sure that limited his travels in the beginning, but when Kelvin joined the project, Radzinsky would have had a bit more freedom to leave for longer periods of time. I'm sure Kelvin didn't mind, considering he continues Radzinsky's investigations long after Radzinsky has died and continues to speak highly of his former partner.

Now, think about the content of that spliced clip. It talks all about avoiding communication and contact with the outside world. Think about the inside of the Swan's hatch: QUARANTINE and a broken ladder. The Swan was always meant to function on its own, separate from the rest of the Initiative. It had its own food stores, living quarters, armory, lockdown procedure and dedicated food drop.

I imagine Radzinsky, who seemed like quite the conspiracy theorist, being suspicious and intrigued by the clip he spliced out of the film; so much so that he tried his luck and left the safe quarantined environment of the Swan (probably even using the same hasmat suit Kelvin used).

He took the spliced film with him as a reminder while he investigated the rest of the Island. In his travels, he was able to construct a very accurate overview of the DHARMA Initiative and even map out the locations, names and purposes of some of the other stations. It’s possible, he also found keepsakes from the different stations that he took and put in the Arrow for safekeeping. Maybe he found the blanket in the Arrow; maybe he found the Bible in the Staff; and maybe he found the radio and [Mikhail’s?] glass eye in the Flame. I don’t know if we’ll ever find out for sure, but to me it seems the most likely scenario at this point.

JeffC | Sep 16, 2008 8:26:52 AM | #

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That's right speaking of Alvar Hanso if in fact what Pierre Chang is telling is the truth or not....if so who really is Alvar Hanso and will we ever find out more about him. But I still find that spliced piece of film very fishy because Chang doesn't look the same.

Jacoby | Sep 16, 2008 8:35:25 AM | #

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I'm the last person in the world you'd expect to say this, but I'm going with "they reshot the actor at a later date and didn't do the best job mimicking earlier shooting conditions" as a reason for the difference rather than some huge conspiracy.

It's up there with the fact that the "Penny" in the original version of Des' photo is not the Penny we all know and love now. Different female entirely. This discrepancy merely means they hadn't cast Sonya Walger yet.

http://lostpedia.com/wiki/Desmond%27s_photograph

Feel free to insert the requisite "sometimes a different hair cut is simply a different haircut" joke here.

Ryan | Sep 16, 2008 8:47:41 AM | #

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With all the people who voted, I'm surprised there are only a few of us actually discussing this post!

JeffC | Sep 16, 2008 11:46:48 AM | #

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I'm not entirely convinced that Mr. Widmore had nothing to do with the Dharma Initiative. When talking to Ben, he refers to the island as his. Who knows, maybe at one time it was. A partnership with Alvar Hanso perhaps? A falling out and a quick turn of a frozen donkey wheel later and Widmore's been searching for it ever since! It might not hold much ground, but I'm not willing to count it out just yet. After all, anything is possible in the world of Lost.

Marc | Sep 16, 2008 3:12:51 PM | #

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Alvar Hanso is a descendant of Magmus Hanso, who was captain of the Black Rock.

Shaggysteve | Sep 16, 2008 5:19:49 PM | #

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maybe i missed this already b/c i didn't read all the posts, but is it possible that Radzinsky was the only surviving dharma initiative member of the purge? maybe the reason he went out in full biohazard gear was b/c he was afriad the others would try the same trick again? as for the blast door map, maybe he was trying to plot some sort of revenge, or at the very least, to leave clues for the next poor sucker.

Cheers42 | Sep 23, 2008 9:03:39 AM | #

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