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'Lost': Place your bets
Alrighty, kiddies, it's gambling time. We're on the verge of a big reveal on Lost: the identity of all members of the Oceanic 6. And as such, it's time to take a good, long, hard, non-spoilery look at potential candidates to flesh out the final two positions in this group.
"Non-spoilery, did you say?" Yes, fair reader, I in fact said non-spoilery. I don't know who the last two will be. And if you do, and decide to drop that insider knowledge in the comment section below, well, you'll have failed at life, non-friend. I'm 6'5'', and watched The Karate Kid at least twenty-seven times. You don't want me using the Crane technique on you. I'm the best...around...and no one's gonna keep me down!
"Final two positions, did you say?" Yes, astute reader. While many assume Aaron was the fifth member of the Oceanic 6, I will hold off judgment until the show renders it official. As you'll see below, I don't think it's improbable that he's a member; it's just that I don't automatically include him as one at this time.
So, here's what's gonna happen. I'm going to rank each possible remaining member of the Oceanic 6 according to likelihood of their inclusion in the group. We know four: Jack, Kate, Sayid, and Hurley. What follows is every conceivable other person that I could make up the final two, ranging from "oh Lord in heaven, no" to "absolutely" in my own personal non-spoiled opinion.
I did not list anyone who died on the Island since the show's inception, since I'm a strong believer that "dead is dead," and I didn't include any original member of The Others currently chillin' at the Temple. In addition, I'm not listing the Chopperettes here, although a few of you have come up with some compelling theories that everything in "Confirmed Dead" was in fact a flash forward, not a flash back. I want to think about that more, and watch more of Season 4, before commenting more fully on that. But in any case, given how they are introduced, I think we can safely exclude them from the Oceanic 6. Everyone else, though? Fair game.
Without further ado, onto the list, with odds listed in parentheses.
Frogurt (3,000-1)
Yea, um, it's not Frogurt. (Someday, I will stop making jokes about this peripheral character. But readers, today is not that day.)
Christian Shephard (400-1)
Now, this would be eeeenteresting. This only really has two things going for it: Jack slurringly asking for his father in the flash forward in "Through the Looking Glass" and my keen curiosity to see how this would play out. As I said before, I'm ruling out anyone that's died on the Island since the start of the show, but Christian "died" beforehand, and given his momentary appearance in Jacob's cabin, I'm not ruling this option out. But I'm giving it long odds.
Juliet (200-1)
I have to say that I can't imagine any major character having a harder time leaving the Island than Juliet. After that whole "YOU'RE MINE" business in "The Other Woman," I can't see her ever leaving the Island while Ben still breathes. And since Ben's breathing well and good in Sayid's flash forward, I have to say she's not one of the Oceanic 6. (Plus there's that little pesky "she wasn't actually on the plane" thing standing in the way.)
Danielle/Alex/Karl (195-1)
They weren't on the plane, seemed really quick to join Team Locke in "The Beginning of the End," and oh yeah, they weren't on the plane.
Desmond (175-1)
His story may, in time, be seen as even more important to the overall story of Lost than that of the Oceanic 6. But that story lies elsewhere. In fact, were he a member of the Oceanic 6, this would allow him to reunite with Penny, something I hope happens later rather than sooner for maximum payoff. While he was also not actually on Oceanic 815, I'm willing to buy a conspiracy theory by which Desmond poses as a member of Oceanic 815 towards purposes conceived by Penny/Charles Widmore/Ms. Hawking. Again, it's a long shot, but it's still more likely than any of the above, no?
Cindy/Emma/Zack (150-1)
While all onboard when the plane went down, they are too peripheral and too Room 23'ed to really qualify. You're not dragging any of them from the Temple; as far as they know, they are home. And jacob loves them.
Vincent (125-1)
Hey, just being a completist here.
Ben (100-1)
Given his manipulative abilities, vast financial resources, and host of passports, it's not terribly far-fetched to conceive of a plot in which Ben agrees to take five people off the Island as a way to rope-a-dope Charles Widmore. Biggest negative? In "The Economist," no one knows the identity of Sayid's boss. Somehow, I think Ben as an internationally known crash survivor would compromise his status as shady leader of assassins. Then again, this is Ben we're talking about, so anything's possible.
Rose/Bernard (80-1)
Too peripheral to the Lost story to be involved in a major plot arc such as the Oceanic 6, plus she's stated that should she leave the Island, she worries that her cancer would return. That all being said, I've long, long wondered why Rose thought the monster sounded so familiar back in Season 1. And despite Rose's assertions to the contrary, Bernard is kinda like Rambo.
Sawyer (75-1)
Sawyer off the Island? Feels totally wrong in my bones. He's either the coward that stays behind while Kate leaves, or he's the ultimately redeemed man who sacrifices his life to help her get off the Island. Sawyer's also first in our list of "People That Would Make The Oceanic 6 Happy If They Made It Off the Island, and Therefore Instantly Eliminated from Contention."
Claire (45-1)
Desmond's visions are still in play, and it's safe to assume at some point we'll see her get on Lapidus' chopper. But since we know from "Eggtown" she's mysteriously absent, Desmond's vision is called into question. Is she still on the Island? Is she dead? Or is there a third option: Claire returns, but for reasons yet to explained, asks Kate to pretend the child is hers? We really haven't yet seen the parents who anxiously awaited Claire's unborn child in Los Angeles; maybe there's a very good reason for such deception. Unlikely? Perhaps, but it's possible, and I can see Claire getting off the Island more than anyone else previously listed.
Aaron (15-1)
I'd rank Aaron higher if, you know, he hadn't already appeared on the show. For some, it was confirmation he was a member of the Oceanic 6. For others, it was an intentional mislead, just another in a show full of them. (First scene of "The Other Woman," anyone?) I'm leaning towards the latter, although my odds should demonstrate that I wouldn't find it surprising should he in fact be the fifth revealed member of the Oceanic 6.
Jin (12-1)
Pros: It's his flashback tomorrow. It's his kid on the way. It's his pecs that haunt my dreams. (Whoops, I said that using my out-loud voice.) Cons: Remember what I said about Sawyer and the happiness of the Oceanic 6? And notice how we haven't see his wife on this list yet? Exactly.
Locke (10-1)
Now this one really, really intrigues me. Having Locke leave the Island would be a bold choice, one that would render all on-Island actions vastly more interesting. Locke's also a leading contender for "Guy in the Coffin" from "Through the Looking Glass." He'd be even higher if I could think of a compelling reason for him to leave the Island. "Saving the lives of Team Jack" doesn't ring quite true to me. Maybe it's just a "wrong place, wrong time" scenario. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if we get another glimpse of what exactly Locke was doing on that submarine last season. Just sayin'.
Michael/Walt (7-1)
This is an either/or deal. I can't see any scenario in which both are members of the Oceanic 6, but I can easily see a scenario in which on-freighter activities liberates Sayid at the expense/life of the other. Given that, I'd suggest Michael would sacrifice his life for Walt's. Not that Walt hates his dad, but it would be a fitting end to Michael's arc: redemption on both a paternal level and a fraternal level. On the other hand, an Oceanic 6 Michael would be suitably depressed (a key component of any member of the group) and equally likely to be the "Man in the Coffin. " As for his son...well, you have to admit that Walt could be a powerful resource should the Oceanic 6 try and get back to the Island.
Sun (3-2)
If this show kills Sun via Island pregnancy complications, they might as well replace Michael Giacchino's score and replace it with choice selections from The Cure, The Smiths, and Joy Division. Then, each episode can feature flash forwards of the Oceanic 6 moping about, dressed in black, drinking heavily, and updating their LiveJournal pages. The show simply wouldn't recover from the morbid blow Sun's death would cause. Now, once off the Island, post-childbirth? She's as fair game as anyone. But that's another issue entirely. We're talking about the odds of membership of the Oceanic 6. And she's as sure a bet as there is.
***
So there's my list. Now it's your turn. What did I get right? What did I completely flub? Post your own Oceanic 6, and remember, keep it spoiler-free! Unlike most mysteries on the show, we'll all be able to know just how we did sooner rather than later. So leave your best guess below!
Ryan also posts every 108 minutes over at Boob Tube Dude.
I vote for Frogurt
Al | Mar 12, 2008 6:40:09 PM | #how about the other 2? the whole bit about 8 making it to the island, and 6 living through it...
i will put my $$ on Sun/Jin both making it alive, and the 2 dead as Claire/Sawyer (b/c he'll follow Kate anywhere).
mri | Mar 12, 2008 6:41:52 PM | #oh, i'm assuming that there needed to be a cover story for 2 bodies that came along with the O6 or something...
mri | Mar 12, 2008 6:43:40 PM | #I didn't even try to think about the other two, with knowledge about them so circumspect at this point I felt like I should limit my odds on the Oceanic 6. I try to be completely wrong about only one thing per day, heh.
Ryan | Mar 12, 2008 6:46:34 PM | #Based on the previews, I'm voting for Sun and Jin as the final two members of the Oceanic 6.
But if Jin somehow doesn't make it off the island, I wouldn't mind. He's one of my least favorite characters and wouldn't mind seeing him make himself a meal for ol' Smokey.
Matt | Mar 12, 2008 6:52:47 PM | #I'm going with the favorite, Sun and for my long shot I'll take Claire, because it would be just the kind of twist they'd do after showing us that Kate has Aaron. Who's holding the money?
Shari | Mar 12, 2008 7:03:06 PM | #My money's on Christian Shephard.
Kate | Mar 12, 2008 7:49:58 PM | #Unfortunately I must opt out of this bet due to the fact that I read the spoilers on this months ago. I'm kicking myself for it now, but at the time I was just trying to get at much LOST information as I could when it was off the air. As a regular participant in this blog, I agree that it should remain spoiler-free.
Shaggysteve | Mar 12, 2008 8:44:12 PM | #Shaggysteve you just stopped me from making a mistake. I was about to place my bet as well, but like you, I saw the spoilers about this episode and the ones following it and it would be just utterly wrong if I did that. One other thing I love about the show is that no matter if I come across a spoiler or not I am still shocked and surprised at the outcome or other outcomes.
I so can't wait till tonight. I have my respirator ready, my best friend on speed dial, and a crash cart for the multiple times I will need to be resuscitated... Yes, LOST gets that crucial for me sometimes...
Mark O. Estes | Mar 12, 2008 11:49:07 PM | #From the way the trailer of tommorow's episode was set up, it looks like Michael's return will happen right at the end of the episode, within the last few minutes. So, I'm ruling him out as an Oceanic 6.
Locke or Ben is my best guess for the person in the coffin; no real family, no real friends, and Jack depressed at having removed this person from the Island they loved so much, to die alone in the "real world". So, it stands to reason that if its Locke, he's an Oceanic 6.
My best guess though is that its either Sun or Jin (not both), and someone completely, utterly unexpected.
Other Sean | Mar 13, 2008 12:43:11 AM | #i REALLY hope that it is sun!!!
shane | Mar 13, 2008 5:21:04 AM | #I still think that Aaron is one of them so my other guess is Sun. I guess we will find out tonight.
Blue Sean | Mar 13, 2008 5:52:58 AM | #My best guess-
The 8 who survived the crash
(The 4 reveals) Sun, Jin, Michael, and Walt.
The Oceanic 6: The reveals, Sun & Michael.
I think the foreshadowing of a relationship between Sun & Michael point to this. Where Aaron fits in I have no idea.
Mike in RI | Mar 13, 2008 6:06:01 AM | #Can't really believe that Michael or Walt will be making it off the island. Michael will be payin-the-piper for his deal with the devil. Walt IMHO is already dead. I say this with no spoiler knowledge. Maybe the the Lost game has some clues? JUST KIDDING!!!!
Brian of the North | Mar 13, 2008 6:11:59 AM | #When I say Walt is dead, let me hedge a little by stating that I don't think that Walt is "of this world" any longer (or shorter depending how you percieve time).
Brian of the North | Mar 13, 2008 6:21:09 AM | #I'm spoiler-free as well, but am guessing it's Sun and Michael who make it out alive.
1) There's the tragedy aspect of Jin and Sun being separated.
2) The connection between Michael and Sun in previous seasons
3) This further ups the ante on Michael's return as it makes him even MORE of a pariah in a dramatic-irony / WTF sort-of-way.
Looking forward to tonight!
Stan | Mar 13, 2008 6:26:49 AM | #Shaggysteve, I'm in the exact same "boat" as you. Except my wife is the one that uncovered that little gold nugget. I think she's even spoiled the death for this episode, too.
By the way, the other two survivors (the ones that bring the total to 8) are inconsequential and in fact don't exist. They're just part of Jack's lie.
Jeff | Mar 13, 2008 6:31:36 AM | #I hear you guys. It looks like the conventional wisdom says that Michael makes it off and that Jin & Sun will be seperated. I don't know, I've got a feeling that with the impending birth, daddy has got to be there. A birthing scene in television-land would be just too depressing without daddy there. That is the reason that with further thought, I'm laying the money down on the expecting couple. There done.
Brian of the North | Mar 13, 2008 6:40:16 AM | #Something tells me it's going to be hard for me to feel surprised for the twists this episode. Ah well, it'll be fun to watch anyhow.
Jeff | Mar 13, 2008 6:48:27 AM | #I dunno, I think a birthing scene with the creepy returnee who has previous sins of being a bad father and is put in the situation of being the only guy available to help is totally within Lost's writing wheelhouse...
Especially when you consider all the daddy issues that pop up in this show, this'd be another one to add to the list.
Stan | Mar 13, 2008 6:49:47 AM | #Ryan, you said: "I've long, long wondered why Rose thought the monster sounded so familiar back in Season 1."
It's a bit of an in-joke. One of the sound effects used to voice Smokey was of a taxi cab receipt printer. Since Rose was from the Bronx, it's a sound she likely heard many times. http://lostpedia.com/wiki/The_%22Monster%22#Sounds
| Mar 13, 2008 6:50:31 AM | #Doubt, if you will, my Jin & Sun prediction. I have a clear picture in mind of a slow-motion, post-birth, musical montage with both mommy and daddy canoodling with little "Moon" with the weepy piano music building to a loving crescendo.
Brian of the North | Mar 13, 2008 7:54:18 AM | #i'm with BotN on this one. Jin and Sun.
mri | Mar 13, 2008 8:05:43 AM | #I think the candidacy for "man in the coffin" should be eliminated as a factor for determining the final two members of the Oceanic Six. (a little late, I know)
Obviously, the Six are international celebrities. If the man in the coffin was one of the Six, Jack wouldn't have been the only one to attend the funeral. That being said, it's gets us no closing to determining who the final two are.
I would expect to see Sun and Jin, but Sun and Michael or Locke would be fascinating.
Ken | Mar 13, 2008 8:09:51 AM | #I think 'Oceanic 6' implies they were on the original manifest. That would leave out most of your longshots (as you mention with the 'not on the plane' references).
I like the 'Locke is the guy in the coffin' idea. When Jack confirms that no one came to see the viewing, I immediately thought of Locke.
Everyone is betting Sun, so there must be a spoiler about it somewhere. No way this many people 'predict' Sun who has been almost completely absent from Season 4 without some outside influence.
Having not read the spoilers, I'd guess Michael and Walt make it off and Jin/Locke are the dead +2 (8 but 2 died).
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