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'Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains': No. 12 Tom Westman

tom-westman-survivor.jpgZap2it is counting down the "Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains" eliminations. The next eliminee: Tom Westman.

Disclaimer: No spoilers blahblah huge 'Survivor' fans blahblah predictions only blahblah you know the drill.

Watching Tom Westman kick ass and take names on "Survivor: Palau" was enormously satisfying. He's a total silver fox who has the added bonus of being a fireman (fireman = sexy), he won Immunity Idol after Immunity Idol and he played a real stand-up game, which is fun sometimes (not that we don't love the sneaky players too).

We think Tom will get pretty far in the game, but we don't see him making the merge. We think that after picking off the Heroes women one-by-one, the Heroes men will take out Tom before Amanda because he's not only a serious threat to win the money but he's not as young as he was on Palau. Remember, that was five years ago and that makes a difference. Plus, we can see James, JT and Colby really liking Amanda. We think Rupert might be Tom's only ally at this point and two verses four equals Tom being voted off.

We hope for we're wrong because we really wanted to pick Tom for Final Three, but decided against it.

Tomorrow: Tyson Apostol

How do you guys think we're doing so far? Are we being totally crazy?

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Related

No. 13 Stephenei
No. 14 Sugar
No. 15 Cirie
No. 16 Parvati
No. 17 Coach
No. 18 Candice
No. 19 Jerri
No. 20 Randy

Photo credit: CBS
  
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Several problems...
1. I don't see why you think the villains are planning to win 4 challenges in a row. That seems unlikely since they have the weaker team...especially after your proposed eliminations.
2.
In your scenario the hero team is watching itself get destroyed and sees the merge looming. They are going to be looking to keep their tribe tight so nobody jumps ship. Tom doesn't seem like a strong candidate to jump ship.
3. It seems unlikely that after 8 eliminations there will not be a merge yet or some sort of tribe switch.

I know there could be a tribe switch, but I feel like that would destroy the whole "Heroes vs Villains" premise, so I'm not factoring that in.

I've said many times that Im operating under the basic premise that the Villains tribe starts off weak and then comes storming back to even the score. I have to have SOME kind of parameters for these predictions and that's a premises I chose to operate under. It's not completely far-fetched.

Besides, who have I eliminated from the Villains who would really help them win challenges? Other than Coach, I don't see how my choices have weakened the Villains that much. Parvati is good in individual immunity, but Randy and Jerri? I don't think their loss weakens the Villains.

I probably shouldn't speak for Dave, and if I'm wrong I apologize. But I believe his point is that the Villains tribe is the weaker one to start with, considering that the Heroes are top-loaded with alpha males, and losing ANY players would weaken them against that lineup. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen. As we've seen, events often go against expectations. I just think that was the point Dave was trying to make.

What if the merge was at 12? You think Tom would still be taken out either way?

Yes, Beth was thinking what I was thinking about the hero team starting out stronger (both men and women). The supposed villain eliminations have them getting rid of average strength players (Coach, Randy, Jerry...) but not eliminating their weakest women. Meanwhile your hero eliminations get rid of their weakest 2 players immediately.
Andrea, just offering up my thoughts since this is all for fun and it's pretty much impossible to predict this stuff (although I'd be shocked if Sandra makes the merge).

0 for 20 it was Coach
(1st memeber of the jury)

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