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'American Idol' vs. 'NCIS': It'll be close(ish)
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Come this time next week, it's very likely that we'll have a new No. 1 show on television. Because this time next week, "American Idol" will have premiered.It's been a foregone conclusion for most of the past decade that when FOX's singing competition begins its season in January, every other show on TV is playing for second place in the ratings. That's probably how things will play out once the show's ninth season starts Tuesday (Jan. 12) -- but the season's No. 1 show so far won't exactly go away quietly.
That would be "NCIS," which as luck would have it is also a direct competitor with "Idol" at 8 o'clock ET Tuesday nights.
The CBS show has always been relatively "Idol"-proof, drawing a consistent audience regardless of what was airing against it. This season, however, has been its best ever: It draws an average of just under 20.6 million viewers per week. If it holds onto that audience into the spring, there could be some very interesting overnight ratings reports to peruse on Wednesday mornings.
I'm not going to be so bold as to predict "NCIS" will at some point beat "Idol" in a given week -- the numbers say that probably won't happen. The Tuesday "Idol" averaged 26.3 million viewers last year, down about 9 percent from 2008. Say for argument's sake that the show falls by the same amount this season: That would still leave it with just under 24 million viewers, a number "NCIS" hasn't quite reached yet.
But I also wouldn't be shocked if that were to happen, particularly if "Idol" doesn't put together an especially compelling group of contestants before the audience.
(I should also be clear that I'm only talking about total viewers here -- "American Idol" will still rule the adults 18-49 demographic on Tuesdays. "NCIS" draws a healthy 4.5 rating in the demo, but that's only 12th-best on broadcast TV this season.)
The first face-off on Tuesday will likely be a big win for "Idol" as its premiere tends to be among the most-watched episodes of the season. But keep an eye on the numbers farther down the line -- the numbers are likely to be as close as they've ever been.
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Photo credits: FOX, CBS
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I Love NCIS and I never watched American Idol and I never will because, my TV on Tuesday night is on CBS watching NCIS new episode or not I still watch NCIS every Tuesday night!!!!! I LOVE NCIS BEST SHOW IN THE WORLD!!!
I'm SICK of AI...same thing over and over and what is Ellen doing on it? I'm sticking with a GREAT show like NCIS(and I'm not alone).
@AmericanEagleJRL:
Did you seriously just lament about society deteriorating and then use ELLEN as the reason to watch a reality TV show?
Pot, meet Kettle.
@Too Funny
Ellen is clever, witty, intelligent and downright hilarious. Also, AI is not a reality show. It's a competition show. Jersey Shore is a reality show and I wouldn't watch it if someone paid me. So, nice try there. But you fail.
American Idol has killed off too many good shows over the years and has been on the air too long. I'm not so naive as to expect its ratings to suddenly collapse to the point of cancellation but I am really rooting for NCIS to keep Idol at bay this year, especially since NCIS appears to be one of the last US scripted drama series capable of attracting numbers in the 20 million range.
All that said, NCIS will still win in the long run because I don't see Idol going into reruns or selling DVDs the way NCIS does. It's the show with real staying power.
i forgot ellen was gonna be on it this season! looks like i have a reason to watch it again
I mostly only watch sports on tv but when NCIS comes on I'm watching that. (Best show on tv by a mile.)