Emmy predictions: 'Mad Men' and '30 Rock' are the favorites

By Rick Porter

September 18, 2009 2:01 PM

If the Emmys play out the way most critics expect them to, there won't be a ton of suspense when the envelopes are opened Sunday.

The broad consensus is that "Mad Men" and "30 Rock" will repeat their victories for best drama and comedy series at the 61st annual Primetime Emmys, which air on CBS Sunday night. If "30 Rock" repeats, it would be its third straight win for outstanding comedy.

In fact, as the Washington Post's Lisa de Moraes points out, this year's awards could end up being an almost complete rerun of last year's in the major categories, with "30 Rock's" Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin, "Damages" star Glenn Close and "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston all among the favorites in the lead acting races.

While that's less likely to happen -- it hasn't in about 40 years -- a couple of repeats seem inevitable. Take a look at the following predictions for the two series categories and best lead actor and actress in a comedy and drama (for an expanded set of predictions from yours truly and about a dozen others, check out our sister site The Envelope's list).

Tom O'Neill, The Envelope: Drama series - "Mad Men"; comedy series - "30 Rock"; lead actress/drama - Glenn Close, "Damages"; lead actor/drama - Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"; lead actress/comedy - Tina Fey, "30 Rock"; lead actor/comedy - Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock."

Alan Sepinwall, Star-Ledger: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"; Close; Fey; Baldwin.

Aaron Barnhart, Kansas City Star: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Hugh Laurie, "House"; Fey; Baldwin. No pick for drama actress.

Maggie Furlong, AOL TV: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Close; Laurie; Fey; Parsons.

Michael Ausiello, Entertainment Weekly: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Close; Laurie; Fey; Parsons.

Tim Goodman, San Francisco Chronicle: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"; Hamm; Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"; Parsons.

Joseph Kapsch, Zap2it editorial director: "Mad Men"; "Family Guy"; Close; Cranston; Fey; Baldwin.

And lastly, my own: "Mad Men"; "30 Rock"; Close; Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment"; Fey; Steve Carell, "The Office."

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Related:

Zap2it's Emmy coverage
Emmys 2009: What should win best drama series?
Emmys 2009: What should win best comedy series?

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| Comments (11)

11 Comments

I think it'll definitely be very similar to last year's show. For my predictions, check out my blog: http://bit.ly/6ek6F

Kristal | September 18, 2009 3:25 PM

The Emmy's always have a few surprises. I'm betting that 'Breaking Bad' will take Best Drama this year.

Bryan Cranston for the Win | September 18, 2009 5:28 PM

Anything 'Breaking Bad' wins they will have deserved.

Nick | September 18, 2009 7:09 PM

PLEASE GOD, let HUGH LAURIE
FINALLY win the Emmy!!!!
He is SO deserving and it is about time he is recognized for his brilliant performance as Dr. Greg House week in and week out.

Karamel with a K | September 19, 2009 2:17 AM

Aaron Paul, best supporting actor (Breaking Bad).

the fanz | September 19, 2009 10:41 AM

What's the point of watching the Emmys this year? "The Shield" and "Friday Night Lights" both got snubbed.

DesertEagle | September 19, 2009 1:40 PM

Honestly, if they give the awards to the same people and shows year after year why bother. I've seen three episodes of "Mad Men" and I'm still trying to figure out what the fuss is. I've seen two episodes of "Breaking Bad" and while it is a show I do not watch I DO understand why is it considered very well done. Someone explain to me why "30 Rock" is so much better that "The Big Bang Theory" which should have been nominated but wasn't. Is it because "30 Rock" is an insiders show?
The other trend is to drop a movie star into a show and automatically they get nominated. Just look at the acting categories. And what is up with "Monk" being considered a comedy? It has its comedic moments but it would be like putting any actor in "The Mentalist" in the comedy category. Tony Shalub is a fine actor but Monk is one of the most tragic characters on television. A lot of this process just doesn't make any sense.

cath | September 19, 2009 2:31 PM

Most awards shows have been pats on the back for industry insiders and faves for the past ten years or so. Seeing an Emmy go to a show that a lot of people actually watch these days is like trying to find a pink Dalmatian.

Aaron R | September 20, 2009 12:43 PM

Aaron, you make a good point. I do think that the financial dire straights the film industry is in is caused in part by its irrational admiration for poorly made shows and movies that nobody wants to see.

Industry insiders seem obsessed with garnering awards and critical notices by making films and shows that audiences do not like.

Mad Men is a snoozefest. Everybody knows it except industry voters. #)Rock is a not-too-funny industry send-off. Everybody knows that, except industry decision-makers.

The disconnect between real people and Hollywood has never been so obvious and the Emmys are making that divide plain as day.

It is one thing for an awards board to recognize a great show that hasn't been promoted and give it visibility.

It's quite another one to heap praise on well-hyped shows that the public has soundly rejected. I don't know if it's snobbery, laziness or the desire to conform that is causing this, but the refusal by the industry to embrace true creativity is what is leading in to oceans of red ink.

Rena Moretti | September 20, 2009 2:54 PM

The Shield and Friday Night Lights of those shows are exactly the shows that SHOULD be ignored by the Emmys.

They are both poorly made (with shakycam galore) and therefore low-rated.

They are the epitome of hyped-up poorly-made shows whose renewals for reasons of empty hype are killing the industry's commercial viability.

Rena Moretti | September 20, 2009 2:57 PM